Scenarios and Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Welcome to BES-Net’s Scenario Analysis and Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services module.

This module aims at providing online learning and networking opportunities on issues in the interface between science, policy and practice related to scenarios and modelling of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

In this module, you can learn more about the organisations who are working in this field, share information and knowledge, connect and interact with experts from around the globe, and find possible solutions to your specific questions.

What are Scenarios and Models in Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services?

Scenarios are plausible representations of possible futures for one or more components of a system, and/or alternative policy or management options intended to alter the future state of these components.

Models are qualitative or quantitative representations of key components of a system and of relationships between these components. In the context of biodiversity and ecosystem services, the term "models" usually, but not exclusively, refers to quantitative descriptions of relationships:

  • Between indirect drivers and direct drivers of change;
  • Between direct drivers and nature (biodiversity and ecosystems); and
  • Between nature and nature's benefits to people, including ecosystem services.

In a nutshell, scenario analysis and modelling provides a means of identifying and understanding the driving forces at play in a particular context or environment, including the socio-cultural, economic and ecological elements.

It allows exploration of possible future paths, which lead to a change of structures and processes in the environment influencing the capability to provide ecosystem services.

This creates a comprehensive picture of the trends and dynamics of strategic challenges for decision-makers, in order to make more informed decisions that anticipate potential future conditions and work to accommodate or even influence these.


This module has been developed in collaboration with the Technical Support Unit supporting the IPBES work on Policy Support Tools and Methodologies for Scenario Analysis and Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (deliverable 3(c)).



Organisations and Initiatives

The following organisations and initiatives are leaders in the field of Scenarios and Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. They have provided content, experts, and more to BES-Net. To learn more about a particular organization and the work they are doing click below.

Search library

Search or browse through our library of existing resources on Scenarios and Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Entries include scientific articles, reports, policy briefs, webinars, videos, and more. To view a particular resource, click below.


These individuals are experts in the field of Scenarios and Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. BES-Net experts come from a wide range of sectors, from community activists to research scientists. They are available to answer questions, respond to polls, and engage in conversation with BES-Net users on their area of expertise. To learn more about an expert and their work, or get in touch with them, click below.