Despite considerable investment of time and resources over recent decades, there is limited knowledge about the overall impact of adaptation efforts. This lack of certainty about effectiveness is due to a lack of scientific evidence which clearly demonstrates that adaptation efforts lead to desired outcomes for biodiversity, and due to little reporting or evaluation to generate better evidence. This issue only increases in importance where adaptation interventions seek not only to improve outcomes for human wellbeing, but also for biodiversity and ecosystems. Among such interventions with limited evidence are ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation (EbA2), a key strategy for addressing the adverse effects of climate change on vulnerable human communities through nature-based solutions. To address this gap in evidence and to facilitate better decision making, consideration of monitoring and evaluation has rapidly increased in prominence across the conservation sector through the adoption of tools, methods an approaches from other sectors, in particular, public health, social work and education. One such tool, borrowed from community-based social change initiatives, is the theory of change approach which is a process used to support project planning and monitoring. This approach conceptualizes the overall goal for a project and the short, medium and long-term outcomes that are required to lead the project to this end. In this document we provide project managers a step-by-step guide to constructing a theory of change with examples set in the context of Conservation International (CI)’s International Climate Initiative (IKI) project that is designing and implementing EbA interventions in three countries. The theory of change approach potentially has multiple benefits for application to EbA projects, including helping teams balance multiple objectives, understand relationships between different objectives and interventions, and deal with the time lags required to observe ecological and social change. This document is split into two main parts. The first outlines the basic concept of the theory of change approach and its origins. It describes the key characteristics of the approach and the potential benefits of its application to project planning and evaluation. The second part of this guidance document outlines the steps to constructing a theory of change and practical recommendations for facilitating a workshop for a project team on this process. The steps are illustrated with examples from a project funded by BMU ICI that is implemented by CI. Further reading and additional resources related to facilitation and development of theory of change models are provided in the Appendices.
