Climate change and fire suppression have altered disturbance regimes in forest ecosystems globally. In the seasonally dry forests of western North America, large-scale restoration may reduce severe fire and increase forest resilience but also eliminate existing habitat for sensitive wildlife species. We modeled bioregional-scale effects of forest restoration on future severe fire activity and occupancy dynamics of an old-forest species declining in abundance, the spotted owl (Strix occidentalis), in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. Our findings suggest restoring historical forest structure may mitigate severe fire activity as the climate warms, particularly when restoration occurs in owl habitat. On average, benefits provided by restoration to owls (reduced severe fire) were found to exceed potential costs (direct habitat alteration) by mid-century. However, the magnitude and direction of restoration trade-offs varied spatially, which informs restoration planning. When large, old trees are maintained, forest restoration can provide co-benefits to old-forest species and forest ecosystem resilience under climate change.
