This report, and the project activities that contributed to it, is the first step in this direction. This pilot study zoomed in on the multiple land-use-related challenges faced by Ethiopia and Kenya, which have expressed interest in joining this study. This included sharing and discussing data on economic and population growth (Section 2), land use and land cover changes, land degradation and drought (Section 3), changes in crop and livestock productivity and production (Section 4), and food availability and agricultural trade (Section 5). Scenarios on land-use change and degradation that were developed for GLO1, based on internationally developed reference scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)), were adapted to include more detail for Ethiopia and Kenya. These projections were complemented with analysis of current trends and both were compared with policy plans and ambitions as developed in both countries. Data were presented and discussed in a series of online meetings in which government representatives and stakeholders from both countries participated. A number of factors could not be taken on board in this pilot study. First, even while the COVID- 19 crisis shifted most of the activities in this pilot study online, the actual impact of COVID-19 is not included in the scenario projections as they were developed at an earlier time. However, the impact of COVID-19 on food security and economic development in both countries is pronounced, at least in the short and medium-term, as discussed in Section 2.1. Climate change impacts on agricultural production, the precise effects of which are highly uncertain for East Africa, have not been dealt with explicitly in the projections, but key insights are discussed in Section 2.2. Moreover, the quantitative analysis presented here is largely based on harmonized data sets at the global level. Discrepancies or errors that are of little relevance at the global level tend to become more evident when zooming in at the regional or national level. Some examples are given in the report. Still, five firm conclusions can be drawn from the analysis in this report.
