Climate change-induced disasters (e.g., bushfires, droughts, and flooding) occur more frequently and with greater intensity than in previous decades. Disasters can at times fuel social change but that is not guaranteed. To understand whether disasters lead to status quo maintenance or social change, we propose a model (Social Identity Model of Post-Disaster Action; SIMPDA) which focuses on the role of leadership in the aftermath of a disaster. Looking specifically at climate change-related disasters, we propose that intragroup and intergroup dynamics in both the pre-disaster as well as the post-disaster context affect whether leadership (a) has the potential to mobilize social identity resources to enable social change, or else (b) fails to capitalize on emerging social identity resources in ways that ultimately maintain the status quo. Given the importance of urgent climate change action, we predict that status quo maintenance is associated with post-disaster paralysis. In contrast, social change that is set in train by capitalizing on social identity-based resources holds the promise of greater post-disaster learning and enhanced disaster preparedness when it is focused on addressing the challenges brought about by climate change. We apply this model to understand responses to the 2019/2020 bushfires in Australia. Our analysis suggests that while an emerging sense of shared identity centered on acting to tackle climate change provides a window of opportunity for securing increased disaster preparedness, this opportunity risks being missed due to, among other things, the absence of leaders able and willing to engage in constructive identity-based leadership.
